Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(30)

Published: July 19, 2021

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present precisely dated well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- 5-y resolution that reflects high- low-frequency ASM 4680 BCE 2011 CE. Superimposed on persistent drying trend since mid-Holocene, rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 ∼1500 caused dry hydroclimatic regime ∼1675 ∼1185 BCE, mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% 5 2% lower than during mid-Holocene instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks mid-to late Holocene transition, which regional forests declined enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue this abrupt aridification starting contributed shift cultures China likely triggered human migration transformation.

Language: Английский

---

The role of green industrial transformation in mitigating carbon emissions: Exploring the channels of technological innovation and environmental regulation

Energy and Built Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 5(3), P. 464 - 479

Published: March 15, 2023

The industrial sector is vital to economic progress, yet pollution poses environmental and concerns. purpose of the study was investigate influence green transformation in reducing Pakistan's carbon intensity between 1975 2020. Carbon emissions are considered an endogenous construct, while foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, technological innovation, transformation, legislation, research development (R&D) possible mediators. association variables assessed using robust least-squares approach. Green connected with lower emissions, technical R&D investment, inbound FDI raise a country's emissions. findings support haven hypothesis country. causality estimates indicate that inward contributes regulations; directly relates expenditures; innovations correspond FDI, expenditures, ecofriendly progression, standards. According impulse response function, policies anticipated have differential effect on 2023, 2024, 2028–2030, they likely decrease years 2025–2027 2031 forward. Additionally, technology advancements would almost certainly result rise over time. transitions projected ten-year reduction variance decomposition analysis indicates eco-friendly adaptations largest error shock (11.747%), followed by advancements, regulatory changes, spending having minimal impact economy should foster revolution avoid increase sustainability meet its goals.

Language: Английский

---

The archaeology of climate change: The case for cultural diversity

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(30)

Published: July 22, 2021

Anthropogenic climate change is currently driving environmental transformation on a scale and at pace that exceeds historical records. This represents an undeniably serious challenge to existing social, political, economic systems. Humans have successfully faced similar challenges in the past, however. The archaeological record Earth archives offer rare opportunities observe complex interaction between human systems under different regimes spatial temporal scales. archaeology of offers identify factors promoted resilience past apply knowledge gained present, contributing much-needed, long-term perspective research. One strengths cultural diversity it encompasses, which alternatives solutions proposed from within Western agro-industrial complex, might not be viable cross-culturally. While contemporary discourse focuses importance biodiversity, we highlight as source resilience.

Language: Английский

---

Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 bc

Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 614(7949), P. 719 - 724

Published: Feb. 8, 2023

Abstract The potential of climate change to substantially alter human history is a pressing concern, but the specific effects different types remain unknown. This question can be addressed using palaeoclimatic and archaeological data. For instance, 300-year, low-frequency shift drier, cooler conditions around 1200 bc frequently associated with collapse several ancient civilizations in Eastern Mediterranean Near East 1–4 . However, precise details synchronized human-history-scale associations are lacking. archaeological–historical record contains multiple instances societies successfully adapting 5–7 It likely that consecutive multi-year occurrences rare, unexpected extreme climatic events may push population beyond adaptation centuries-old resilience practices 5,7–10 Here we examine Hittite Empire Hittites were one great powers world across five centuries 11–14 , an empire centred semi-arid region Anatolia political socioeconomic interconnections throughout Mediterranean, which for long time proved resilient despite facing regular intersecting sociopolitical, economic environmental challenges. Examination ring width stable isotope records obtained from contemporary juniper trees central provides high-resolution dryness record. analysis identifies unusually severe continuous dry period 1198 1196 (±3) potentially indicating tipping point, signals type episode overwhelm risk-buffering practices.

Language: Английский

---

What we talk about when we talk about seasonality – A transdisciplinary review

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 225, P. 103843 - 103843

Published: Nov. 1, 2021

Language: Английский

---

Progress and uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Quaternary Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 286, P. 107537 - 107537

Published: May 14, 2022

Global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions provide an important means of placing recent anthropogenic trends in the context preindustrial climate variations evaluating their causes. As new have been developed estimates past refined, results continue to show that by late 20th century temperatures very likely exceeded those any time at least last millennium. Despite progress over two decades, however, there remain persistent uncertainties with regard to, inter alia, first millennium global annual scales, magnitude multidecadal millennial-scale changes causes, surface response volcanic eruptions. We review strengths limitations existing paleoclimate highlight sources extant uncertainties, all Sixth Assessment Report from Working Group I Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Based our these factors, we recommendations for using, interpreting, improving large-scale reconstructions.

Language: Английский

---

Climatic, weather, and socio-economic conditions corresponding to the mid-17th-century eruption cluster

Climate of the past, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 18(5), P. 1083 - 1108

Published: May 20, 2022

Abstract. The mid-17th century is characterized by a cluster of explosive volcanic eruptions in the 1630s and 1640s, climatic conditions culminating Maunder Minimum, political instability famine regions western northern Europe as well China Japan. This contribution investigates sources 1640s their possible impact on contemporary climate using ice core, tree-ring, historical evidence but will also look into socio-political context which they occurred human responses may have triggered. Three distinct sulfur peaks are found Greenland core record 1637, 1641–1642, 1646. In Antarctica, only one unambiguous sulfate spike recorded, peaking 1642. resulting bipolar peak 1641–1642 can likely be ascribed to eruption Mount Parker (6∘ N, Philippines) 26 December 1640, emitted from Komaga-take (42∘ Japan) volcano 31 July 1641 has potentially contributed concentrations observed at this time. smaller 1637 1646 attributed Hekla (63∘ Iceland) Shiveluch (56∘ Russia), respectively. To date, however, none candidate volcanoes for been confirmed with tephra preserved cores. Tree-ring written point cold late early various parts poor harvests. Yet 17th was widespread warfare across – particular Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) rendering any attribution socio-economic crisis volcanism challenging. Japan, extreme droughts famines starting 1638 (China) 1640 (Japan), thereby preceding (31 1640) (4 January 1641). case between societal recorded its aftermath thus offer textbook example difficulties (i) unambiguously distinguishing volcanically induced cooling, wetting, or drying natural variability (ii) attributing instability, harvest failure, solely impacts. shows that while impacts past must always studied within contexts, it time move reductive framings sometimes reactionary oppositional stances (and environment more broadly) either not deemed an important contributor major events.

Language: Английский

---

Societal collapse: A literature review

Futures, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 145, P. 103075 - 103075

Published: Dec. 1, 2022

Because of concerns that ongoing climate change could lead to a possible collapse human civilization, the topic societal (civilization) has emerged as especially relevant, not least for futures-oriented studies. While this led extensive research on collapse, there is lack consolidation and synthesis research. The purpose article thus systematize extant suggest future directions. This offers systematic multidisciplinary review existing literature (361 articles 73 books) identifies five scholarly conversations: past collapses, general explanations alternatives fictional collapse. builds foundation critical discussion each line inquiry by focusing theoretical tensions themes within conversation, ending with how these conversations inform futures

Language: Английский

---

Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 378(1889)

Published: Sept. 18, 2023

Climate variability and natural hazards like floods earthquakes can act as environmental shocks or socioecological stressors leading to instability suffering throughout human history. Yet, societies experience a wide range of outcomes when facing such challenges: some suffer from social unrest, civil violence complete collapse; others prove more resilient maintain key functions. We currently lack clear, generally agreed-upon conceptual framework evidentiary base explore what causes these divergent outcomes. Here, we discuss efforts develop through the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) programme. illustrate that impact is mediated extant cultural, political economic structures evolve over extended timescales (decades centuries). These generate high resilience major shocks, facilitate positive adaptation, or, alternatively, undermine collective action lead even societal collapse. By exposing ways different have reacted crises their lifetime, this help identify factors complex social-ecological interactions either bolster contemporary climate shocks. This article part theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs science culture'.

Language: Английский

---

The Anthropocene condition: evolving through social–ecological transformations

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(1893)

Published: Nov. 13, 2023

Anthropogenic planetary disruptions, from climate change to biodiversity loss, are unprecedented challenges for human societies. Some societies, social groups, cultural practices, technologies and institutions already disintegrating or disappearing as a result. However, this coupling of socially produced environmental with disruptive changes—the Anthropocene condition—is not new. From food-producing hunter–gatherers, farmers, urban industrial food systems, the current entanglement has its roots in millennia evolving accumulating sociocultural capabilities shaping cultured environments that our societies have always lived (sociocultural niche construction). When these transformative shape coupled adaptations enabling more effectively live transformed environments, social–ecological scales intensities transformations can accelerate through positive feedback loop ‘runaway construction’. Efforts achieve better future both people planet will depend on guiding runaway evolutionary process towards outcomes by redirecting Earth's most force nature: power aspirations. To guide force, narratives appeal aspirations be effective than crisis overstepping natural boundaries. This article is part theme issue ‘Evolution sustainability: gathering strands an synthesis’.

Language: Английский

---