Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Feb. 10, 2025
Abstract June 2024 was the twelfth month in a row with global mean surface temperatures at least 1.5 °C above pre-industrial conditions, but it is not clear if this implies failure to meet Paris Agreement goal of limiting long-term warming below threshold. Here we show that climate model simulations, target usually crossed well before such string unusually warm occurs.
Language: Английский
Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)
Published: Aug. 11, 2022
Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate
Language: Английский
Citations
1732
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 126(3)
Published: Dec. 15, 2020
Abstract We present a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit global surface temperature data set, HadCRUT5. HadCRUT5 presents monthly average near‐surface anomalies, relative to 1961–1990 period, on regular 5° latitude by longitude grid from 1850 2018. is combination sea‐surface (SST) measurements over ocean ships and buoys air weather stations land surface. These have been sourced updated compilations adjustments applied mitigate impact changes in SST measurement methods revised. Two variants produced for use different applications. The first represents anomaly locations where are available. second, more spatially complete, variant uses Gaussian process based statistical method make better available observations, extending estimates into regions which underlying informative. Each provided as 200‐member ensemble accompanied additional uncertainty information. revised input sets analysis results greater warming course whole record. In recent years, increased an improved representation Arctic understanding evolving biases ships. updates result consistency with other independent sets, despite their approaches set construction, further increase confidence our seen.
Language: Английский
Citations
726
Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 287 - 422
Published: June 29, 2023
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Language: Английский
Citations
470
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 147(741), P. 4186 - 4227
Published: Sept. 24, 2021
Abstract The extension of the ERA5 reanalysis back to 1950 supplements previously published segment covering 1979 present. It features assimilation additional conventional observations, as well improved use early satellite data. number observations assimilated increases from 53,000 per day in 570,000 by end 1978. Accordingly, quality improves throughout period, generally joining seamlessly with fidelity is illustrated accurate depiction North Sea storm 1953, and events leading first discovery sudden stratospheric warmings 1952. Time series global surface temperature anomalies show temperatures be relatively stable until late 1970s, agreement other contemporary full‐input this period independent data sets, although there are significant differences accuracy representing specific regions, Europe being represented but Australia less so. variability precipitation month agrees for all continents, correlations above 90% most excess 70% America, Asia Australia. evolution upper air temperatures, humidities winds shows smoothly varying behaviour, including tropospheric warming cooling, modulated volcanic eruptions. Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation throughout. Aspects upon future reanalyses include tropical cyclone data, spin‐up soil moisture humidity, representation over
Language: Английский
Citations
427
Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 147 - 286
Published: June 29, 2023
A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the 'Save PDF' action button.
Language: Английский
Citations
254
Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)
Published: Feb. 9, 2023
In late June 2021 a heatwave of unprecedented magnitude impacted the Pacific Northwest region Canada and United States. Many locations broke all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C, Canadian national record was broken 4.6 with new 49.6 °C. Here, we provide comprehensive summary this event its impacts. Upstream diabatic heating played key role in anomaly. Weather forecasts provided advanced notice event, while sub-seasonal showed an increased likelihood heat extreme lead times 10-20 days. The impacts were catastrophic, including hundreds attributable deaths across Northwest, mass-mortalities marine life, reduced crop fruit yields, river flooding from rapid snow glacier melt, substantial increase wildfires-the latter contributing to landslides months following. These examples can learn vivid depiction how climate change be so devastating.
Language: Английский
Citations
208
The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 806, P. 150349 - 150349
Published: Sept. 17, 2021
Language: Английский
Citations
172
The Review of Economic Studies, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 91(2), P. 899 - 939
Published: April 5, 2023
Abstract Global warming is a worldwide and protracted phenomenon with heterogeneous local economic effects. We propose dynamic assessment model of the world economy high spatial resolution to assess its consequences. Our features several forms adaptation temperature changes, including costly trade migration, technological innovations, natality rates. quantify at 1∘×1∘ estimate damage functions that determine impact changes on region’s fundamental productivity amenities conditional temperatures. Welfare losses from global are very across locations, 20% in parts Africa Latin America but also gains some northern latitudes. Overall, inequality increases. Uncertainty about average welfare effects significant much smaller for relative space. Migration innovation shown be important mechanisms. use study carbon taxes, abatement technologies, clean energy subsidies. Carbon taxes delay consumption fossil fuels help flatten curve more effective when an technology forthcoming.
Language: Английский
Citations
80
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(2)
Published: Jan. 19, 2022
Abstract A spurious increase in the interannual variability of prescribed biomass burning (BB) emissions CMIP6 forcing database during satellite era wildfire monitoring (1997–2014) is found to lead warming Northern Hemisphere extratropics simulations with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using targeted sensitivity experiments CESM2 which BB are homogenized and removed, we show that specifically attributable from 40° 70°N arises a net thinning cloud field an associated absorbed solar radiation. Our results also demonstrate potential pitfalls introducing discontinuities climate data sets when trying incorporate novel observations.
Language: Английский
Citations
72
Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(2), P. 171 - 177
Published: Feb. 1, 2024
Abstract Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era began mid-1860s, more than 80 earlier instrumental sea surface records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated ( R 2 = 0.91) global temperatures, with defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 early 1860s. Increasing and land-air overlap until late twentieth century, when land at twice rate oceans. Hotter together onset warming, indicate already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above 2020. Our result 0.5 higher IPCC estimates, projected 2020s, two decades expected.
Language: Английский
Citations
65