The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate

Language: Английский

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Changing State of the Climate System

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 287 - 422

Published: June 29, 2023

A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the 'Save PDF' action button.

Language: Английский

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The ERA5 global reanalysis: Preliminary extension to 1950

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 147(741), P. 4186 - 4227

Published: Sept. 24, 2021

Abstract The extension of the ERA5 reanalysis back to 1950 supplements previously published segment covering 1979 present. It features assimilation additional conventional observations, as well improved use early satellite data. number observations assimilated increases from 53,000 per day in 570,000 by end 1978. Accordingly, quality improves throughout period, generally joining seamlessly with fidelity is illustrated accurate depiction North Sea storm 1953, and events leading first discovery sudden stratospheric warmings 1952. Time series global surface temperature anomalies show temperatures be relatively stable until late 1970s, agreement other contemporary full‐input this period independent data sets, although there are significant differences accuracy representing specific regions, Europe being represented but Australia less so. variability precipitation month agrees for all continents, correlations above 90% most excess 70% America, Asia Australia. evolution upper air temperatures, humidities winds shows smoothly varying behaviour, including tropospheric warming cooling, modulated volcanic eruptions. Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation throughout. Aspects upon future reanalyses include tropical cyclone data, spin‐up soil moisture humidity, representation over

Language: Английский

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Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum

Nature, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 599(7884), P. 239 - 244

Published: Nov. 10, 2021

Language: Английский

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The Berkeley Earth Land/Ocean Temperature Record

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 3469 - 3479

Published: Dec. 17, 2020

Abstract. A global land–ocean temperature record has been created by combining the Berkeley Earth monthly land field with spatially kriged version of HadSST3 dataset. This combined product spans period from 1850 to present and covers majority Earth's surface: approximately 57 % in 1850, 75 1880, 95 1960, 99.9 2015. It includes average temperatures 1∘×1∘ lat–long grid cells for each month when available. provides a mean quite similar records Hadley's HadCRUT4, NASA's GISTEMP, NOAA's GlobalTemp, Cowtan Way complete homogeneous field. Two versions are provided, treating areas sea ice cover as either air over or surface under ice, former being preferred most applications. The choice how assess coverage notable impact on anomalies past decades due rapid warming Arctic. Accounting Arctic suggests ∼ 0.1 ∘C additional global-average rise since 19th century than series that do not capture changes Updated this dataset will be presented at website (http://berkeleyearth.org/data/, last access: November 2020), convenience copy discussed paper archived is freely available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3634713 (Rohde Hausfather, 2020).

Language: Английский

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CMIP6 Simulations With the CMCC Earth System Model (CMCC‐ESM2)

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(3)

Published: Feb. 11, 2022

Abstract This article introduces the second generation CMCC Earth System Model (CMCC‐ESM2) that extends a number of marine and terrestrial biogeochemical processes with respect to its CMIP5 predecessor. In particular, land biogeochemistry was extended wider set carbon pools plant functional types, along prognostic representation nitrogen cycle. The ecosystem reshaped toward an intermediate complexity lower trophic level interactions, including interactive benthic compartment new formulation heterotrophic bacterial population. Details are provided on model setup implementation for different experiments performed as contribution sixth phase Coupled Intercomparison Project. CMCC‐ESM2 shows equilibrium climate sensitivity 3.57°C transient response 1.97°C which close CMIP6 multi‐model averages. evaluation coupled climate‐carbon in historical period against available observational datasets show consistent both physical quantities. However, sink is found be weaker than current global estimates simulated primary production slightly below satellite‐based average over recent decades. Future projections coherently prominent warming northern hemisphere intensified precipitations at high latitudes. expected ranges variability oceanic pH oxygen, well soil storage, compare favorably those assessed from other models.

Language: Английский

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Framing, Context, and Methods

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 147 - 286

Published: June 29, 2023

A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the 'Save PDF' action button.

Language: Английский

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Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 350 - 355

Published: March 14, 2022

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large poorly understood. Here, using climate model ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate future compound over land. This occurs because local warming will be enough droughts always coincide at least moderately extremes, even a 2 °C warmer world. By contrast, weak equivocal sign, depending on model, region internal variability. Therefore, constraining regional also constrain events. These results help assess frequencies other extremes characterized by strongly different drivers. Co-occurring predicted increase global warming. Changes extent changes, highlighting importance understanding prepare society minimize impacts.

Language: Английский

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High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Oct. 23, 2023

We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future conditions. The (encompassing 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990, 1991-2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the 2041-2070 2071-2099) downscaled bias-corrected projections seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). evaluated 67 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) kept a subset 42 with most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. estimate that 1901-1930 to 1991-2020, approximately 5% global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned different major class. Furthermore, we project 1991-2020 2071-2099, will transition class under low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 13% high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. maps, along associated confidence estimates, underlying monthly air temperature precipitation data, sensitivity metrics CMIP6 models, can be accessed at www.gloh2o.org/koppen .

Language: Английский

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Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(3), P. 207 - 212

Published: Jan. 18, 2021

Language: Английский

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