The limits of migration as adaptation. A conceptual approach towards the role of immobility, disconnectedness and simultaneous exposure in translocal livelihoods systems

Climate and Development, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 16(2), С. 87 - 96

Опубликована: Март 1, 2023

Migration can strengthen adaptation to climate change. The potential of migration-as-adaptation builds on a world intensifying global mobility and connectedness the increasing possibility geographically spreading risks. But what if is impeded connectivity disrupted? And happens distant places face risks simultaneously due systemic character or multiplicity crises? This paper points fundamental gaps in research migration-as-adaptation, which largely neglects questions limits. It argues that an understanding limits needs address (1) migration as inherent feature social systems under stress, (2) unequal contested nature goals, (3) immobility, disconnectedness simultaneous exposure core mechanisms limit adaptive migration. proposes novel translocal-mobilities perspective multi-scalar, multi-local, relational intersectional dynamics migration-as-adaptation. formulates for adaptation. A comprehensive will help scientific community build more realistic scenarios change provide entry policies avoid reaching mitigate negative consequences.

Язык: Английский

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The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions

British Journal of Political Science, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 53(4), С. 1108 - 1131

Опубликована: Фев. 16, 2023

Abstract We study the drivers of refugees' decision making about returning home using observational and experimental data from a survey 3,003 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. find that conditions refugee-hosting countries play minor role. In contrast, refugee's country are main return intentions. Even face hostility poor living host countries, unlikely to unless situation at improves significantly. These results challenge traditional models migration, where weigh (“push” “pull” factors). offer an alternative theoretical framework: model threshold-based whereby only once basic threshold safety is met do compare other factors country. explore some empirical implications this new perspective qualitative interviews quantitative data.

Язык: Английский

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Societal determinants of flood-induced displacement

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 121(3)

Опубликована: Янв. 8, 2024

What explains human consequences of weather-related disaster? Here, we explore how core socioeconomic, political, and security conditions shape flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000. In-sample regression analysis shows that extreme levels are more likely in contexts marked by low national income levels, nondemocratic political systems, high local economic activity, prevalence armed conflict. The also reveals large residual differences across continents, where the Global South often is much widespread than direct exposure measures would suggest. However, these factors have limited influence on our ability to accurately predict flood new data, pointing important, hard-to-operationalize heterogeneity impacts critical data limitations. Although results consistent with an interpretation sustainable development agenda beneficial for disaster risk reduction, better societal natural hazards critically needed support evidence-based decision-making.

Язык: Английский

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How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5

Опубликована: Янв. 4, 2024

Climate change will have significant impacts on all aspects of human society, including population movements. In some cases, populations be displaced by natural disasters and sudden-onset climate events, such as tropical storms. other gradually influence the economic, social, political realities a place, which in turn how where people migrate. Planning for wide spectrum future climate-related mobility is key challenge facing development planners policy makers. This article reviews state migration forecasting models, based an analysis thirty recent models. We present characteristics, strengths, weaknesses different modeling approaches, gravity, radiation, agent-based, systems dynamics statistical extrapolation consider five illustrative models depth. show why, at this stage development, are not yet able to provide reliable numerical estimates migration. Rather, best used tools range possible futures, explore dynamics, test theories or potential effects. research implications our findings, need improved data collection, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, scenarios-based planning.

Язык: Английский

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Research priorities for climate mobility

One Earth, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(4), С. 589 - 607

Опубликована: Март 8, 2024

The escalating impacts of climate change on the movement and immobility people, coupled with false but influential narratives mobility, highlight an urgent need for nuanced synthetic research around mobility. Synthesis evidence gaps across Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report a to clarify understanding what conditions make human mobility effective adaptation option its outcomes, including simultaneous losses, damages, benefits. Priorities include integration development planning; involuntary vulnerability; gender; data cities; risk from responses maladaptation; public risk; transboundary, compound, cascading risks; nature-based approaches; planned retreat, relocation, heritage. Cutting these priorities, modalities better position as type process, praxis. Policies practices reflect diverse needs, experiences emphasizing capability, choice, freedom movement.

Язык: Английский

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The Omnibus Law on Job Creation and its potential implications for rural youth and future farming in Indonesia

Asia Pacific Viewpoint, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 65(2), С. 248 - 262

Опубликована: Март 5, 2024

Indonesian rural youth face challenges accessing farmland and sustaining an agricultural livelihood while their labour is not necessarily absorbed by other sectors. In that context, the Omnibus Law on Job Creation (Law 11/2020) promises to liberalise trade investment across multiple sectors, including agriculture food security. Combining legal research political economy approaches agrarian challenges, we identify amendments legislation reduce safeguards for environment, workers' farmers' rights livelihoods. If fully implemented, legislative could further narrow youth's options both secure formal work futures in farming accelerating expansion of infrastructure, industrial plantations extractive industries utilise low‐wage huge areas land. This exposes inconsistencies government's approach increase future security promoting intensification attracting farming, enabling agro‐ resource extraction absorbs land yet offers limited precarious employment prospects.

Язык: Английский

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Reasons to Stay: A Review of Community-Led Efforts to Generate Rootedness

Journal on Migration and Human Security, Год журнала: 2025, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Янв. 6, 2025

Executive Summary Lack of livelihood opportunities, violence, and other pressures lead many youth from across El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras to migrate without documentation, with significant numbers attempting reach the United States. Yet youth, facing similar obstacles, find or create opportunities closer home. This article complements emerging research on what motivates individuals in high-migration areas remain their country origin by reviewing how community-led organizations these countries have contributed creating for locally. After briefly evidence factors associated rootedness (the combination economic, social, civic, cultural ties one’s homeland), we describe experience 17 organizations, all grantees Inter-American Foundation (IAF), identify income generation, education, civic engagement, often greater likelihood remaining locality country. Much effectiveness derives locally-led efforts provide increasingly comprehensive approaches development that boosts young people perceive themselves potential world, while strengthening connection communities. approach, more than any single intervention, makes difference allowing home countries.

Язык: Английский

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Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh

Population and Environment, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 47(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 22, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Prioritizing involuntary immobility in climate policy and disaster planning

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Март 16, 2025

Abstract Globally, populations are increasingly located in areas at high risk of climate change impacts. Some lack the agency to move out harm’s way, leading involuntary immobility. The risks these face insufficiently addressed policy and disaster planning. While planning should be data-informed, appropriate data not limit governments institutions from taking action reduce Incorporating immobility within broader sustainable development goals safe, orderly, regular migration may substantially

Язык: Английский

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Unsettling Events: Understanding Migrants’ Responses to Geopolitical Transformative Episodes through a Life-Course Lens

International Migration Review, Год журнала: 2020, Номер 55(1), С. 227 - 253

Опубликована: Март 3, 2020

Migration under the European Union’s (EU) Freedom of Movement is constructed as temporary and circular, implying that migrants respond to changing circumstances by returning home or moving elsewhere. This construction underpins predictions an exodus EU from United Kingdom (UK) in context Brexit. While migration data indicate increase outflows since vote leave EU, scale does not constitute a “Brexodus.” Moreover, migrants’ applications for UK citizenship have been increasing. The data, though, are sufficiently detailed reveal who responding Brexit which way. article aims offer deeper understanding how experience geopolitical episodes such Introducing term “unsettling events,” we analyze collected longitudinally, three moments significant change: 2004 enlargement, 2008–09 economic recession, Examining our mainly on Polish migrants, through life-course lens, findings highlight need account situatedness migrant experiences lived particular times (both personal historical), places, relationships. In so doing, various factors informing reactions unsettling events ways their potentially impact projects.

Язык: Английский

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