Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(10), P. 500 - 515

Published: Aug. 18, 2020

Language: Английский

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Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: Jan. 7, 2021

Abstract The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, radiative power fires, and extraordinary number fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched historical record. Australia’s hottest driest year on record, 2019, characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads primed landscape to burn when exposed dangerous fire weather ignition. combination climate variability long-term trends generated extremes experienced compounding effects two or more modes their fire-promoting phases (as occurred 2019) has historically increased chances large occurring Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates tropical Pacific Indian ocean are now unusually frequent compared with natural pre-industrial times. Indicators danger have already emerged outside range experience, suggesting projections made than a decade ago increases climate-driven risk would be detectable 2020, indeed eventuated. multiple change contributors Australia, as well observed non-linear escalation extent intensity, raise likelihood may continue rapidly intensify future. Improving local national adaptation measures while pursuing ambitious global mitigation efforts provide best strategy for limiting further

Language: Английский

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Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: April 11, 2022

Abstract Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, perpetuating change. Here, we review current understanding of impacts on weather (weather conditions conducive to ignition spread wildfires) consequences for regional activity as mediated by a range other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity lightning) ignition, suppression, land use). Through supplemental analyses, present stocktake trends in burned area (BA) during recent decades, examine how relates its drivers. Fire controls annual timing fires most regions also drives inter‐annual variability BA Mediterranean, Pacific US high latitude forests. Increases frequency extremity been globally pervasive due 1979–2019, meaning landscapes are primed burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases ∼50% or higher seen some extratropical forest ecoregions including high‐latitude forests 2001–2019, though interannual remains large these regions. Nonetheless, can override relationship between weather. For example, savannahs strongly patterns fuel production fragmentation naturally fire‐prone agriculture. Similarly, tropical relate deforestation rates degradation than changing Overall, has reduced 27% past two part decline African savannahs. According models, prevalence already emerged beyond pre‐industrial Mediterranean change, emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels warming. Moreover, several major wildfires experienced years, Australian bushfires 2019/2020, occurred amidst were considerably likely Current models incompletely reproduce observed spatial based their existing representations relationships controls, historical vary across models. Advances observation controlling supporting addition optimization processes exerting upwards pressure intensity weather, this escalate with each increment global Improvements better interactions climate, extremes, humans required predict future mitigate against consequences.

Language: Английский

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Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 21(2), P. 243 - 252

Published: Dec. 12, 2017

Abstract Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and moisture stress on plants. We used multi‐regional dataset 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from US Rocky Mountains ask if how changing over last several decades impacted post‐fire tree regeneration, key indicator forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in regeneration 21st century. Annual deficits were significantly greater 2000 2015 as compared 1985–1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable growing conditions, corresponding lower seedling densities failure. Dry forests that already occur at edge their climatic tolerance are most prone conversion non‐forests after wildfires. Major climate‐induced reduction density extent has important consequences for myriad ecosystem services now future.

Language: Английский

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Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 15(9), P. 094016 - 094016

Published: March 30, 2020

Abstract California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm and late onset precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes the occurrence magnitude meteorological factors that enable California, use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these are attributable human-caused change. We show state-wide increases temperature (∼1 °C) decreases precipitation (∼30%) over past four decades contributed aggregate indices (+20%). As a result, frequency days (95th percentile) weather—which preferentially associated wildfires—has more than doubled since early 1980s. further find an increase model-estimated probability ∼1950, including long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence northern southern California. Our analyses suggest continued change will amplify number end century, though pathway consistent UN Paris commitments would substantially curb increase. Given acute societal impacts years, our findings critical relevance for ongoing efforts manage wildfire risks other regions.

Language: Английский

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Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 46(1), P. 326 - 336

Published: Nov. 30, 2018

Abstract Changes in global fire activity are influenced by a multitude of factors including land‐cover change, policies, and climatic conditions. This study uses 17 climate models to evaluate when changes weather, as realized through the Fire Weather Index, emerge from expected range internal variability due anthropogenic change using time emergence framework. Anthropogenic increases extreme Index days for 22% burnable land area globally 2019, much Mediterranean Amazon. By midtwenty‐first century, among different metrics occurs 33–62% lands. Emergence heightened weather becomes more widespread function temperature change. At 2 °C above preindustrial levels, is half that 3 °C. These results highlight conditions with human‐caused incentivize local adaptation efforts limit detrimental impacts.

Language: Английский

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Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 210, P. 103348 - 103348

Published: Sept. 6, 2020

Language: Английский

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Historical background and current developments for mapping burned area from satellite Earth observation

Remote Sensing of Environment, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 225, P. 45 - 64

Published: March 5, 2019

Fire has a diverse range of impacts on Earth's physical and social systems. Accurate up to date information areas affected by fire is critical better understand drivers activity, as well its relevance for biogeochemical cycles, climate, air quality, aid management. Mapping burned was traditionally done from field sketches. With the launch first Earth observation satellites, remote sensing quickly became more practical alternative detect areas, they provide timely regional global coverage occurrence. This review paper explores basis area satellite observations, describes historical trends using sensors monitor summarizes most recent approaches map evaluates existing products (both at scales). Finally, it identifies potential future opportunities further improve detection satellites.

Language: Английский

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Wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions: paradigm change needed

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 011001 - 011001

Published: Nov. 4, 2019

Abstract During the last decades, climate and land use changes led to an increased prevalence of megafires in Mediterranean-type regions (MCRs). Here, we argue that current wildfire management policies MCRs are destined fail. Focused on fire suppression, these largely ignore ongoing warming landscape-scale buildup fuels. The result is a ‘firefighting trap’ contributes fuel accumulation precluding suppression under extreme weather, resulting more severe larger fires. We believe ‘business as usual’ approach will not solve problem, recommend policy expenditures be rebalanced between mitigation negative impacts fire. This requires paradigm shift: effectiveness should primarily measured function area burned (as it usually is), but rather avoided socio-ecological damage loss.

Language: Английский

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Defining Extreme Wildfire Events: Difficulties, Challenges, and Impacts

Fire, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 9 - 9

Published: Feb. 25, 2018

Every year worldwide some extraordinary wildfires occur, overwhelming suppression capabilities, causing substantial damages, and often resulting in fatalities. Given their increasing frequency, there is a debate about how to address these with significant social impacts, but no agreement upon terminology describe them. The concept of extreme wildfire event (EWE) has emerged bring coherence on this kind events. It increasingly used, as synonym other terms related high intensity size, its definition remains elusive. goal paper go beyond drawing distinct disciplinary perspectives develop holistic view EWE social-ecological phenomenon. Based literature review using transdisciplinary approach, proposes process an outcome. Considering the lack consistent “scale gravity” leverage events such natural hazards (e.g., tornados, hurricanes earthquakes) we present proposal classification seven categories based measurable fire spread behavior parameters difficulty. 5 7 are labeled EWE.

Language: Английский

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