Agricultural risks from changing snowmelt

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(5), P. 459 - 465

Published: April 20, 2020

Language: Английский

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Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8(7)

Published: May 26, 2020

Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude how much will way droughts would affect society environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future changes using an ensemble five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) To this end, characteristics were investigated under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), end century (2080s; 2071–2,100). Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration (SPEI) first compared, SPEI was used measuring as it showed stronger due to its inclusion temperature effects. Drought area Africa likely increase 21st by 16%, 36%, 54% RCP 8.5, respectively, with areas affected extreme increasing more rapidly than severe moderate droughts. Spatially, event, duration, frequency intensity Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, South but generally decrease Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that follow “dry gets drier wet wetter” paradigm. findings provide important guidance improving identification causes, minimizing enhancing resilience

Language: Английский

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Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(6), P. 485 - 491

Published: May 10, 2021

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 59(2)

Published: Jan. 28, 2021

Abstract Traditional, mainstream definitions of drought describe it as deficit in water‐related variables or water‐dependent activities (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface and groundwater storage, irrigation) due to natural variabilities that are out the control local decision‐makers. Here, we argue within coupled human‐water systems, must be defined understood a process opposed product help better frame complex interrelated dynamics both human‐induced changes define anthropogenic compound multidimensional multiscale phenomenon, governed by combination water variability, climate change, human decisions activities, altered micro‐climate conditions land management. This definition considers full spectrum dynamic feedbacks processes land‐atmosphere interactions energy balance) human‐nature systems drive development . magnifies supply demand gap can lead bankruptcy, which will become more rampant around globe coming decades continuously growing demands under compounding effects change global environmental degradation. challenge has de facto implications for short‐term long‐term resources planning management, governance, policymaking. Herein, after brief overview concept its examples, discuss existing research gaps opportunities understanding, modeling, management this phenomenon.

Language: Английский

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Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 20(2), P. 695 - 712

Published: March 2, 2020

Abstract. Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, in many countries it is most heavily affected sector. Over past decades, efforts have been made assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for first time an integrated assessment both irrigated rainfed agricultural systems global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated separately using indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, socioecological susceptibility lack coping-capacity that weighted by experts from around world. The analysis shows displays heterogeneous pattern level, with higher southeastern Europe as well northern southern Africa. By providing information drivers patterns all dimensions hazard, exposure vulnerability, presented can support identification tailored measures reduce increase resilience systems.

Language: Английский

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Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 803, P. 150065 - 150065

Published: Sept. 1, 2021

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of research been devoted improving quality information hazard data, including exposure specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention given assessment embedded social, economic historical conditions that foster societies. A number assessments based indicators have developed past years. Yet an essential question remains how validate those at scale. This paper examines different options in terms their internal external validity, focusing two indicator systems used WorldRiskIndex INFORM index. The reviews these index best practices same time presents new analysis results show linkages between level disaster outcomes. Both review support each other help communicate validity uncertainty assessments. Next statistical validation methods, we discuss importance appropriate link indicators, data indicandum. We found mortality per event from floods, drought storms 15 times higher for countries ranked highly vulnerable compared classified low vulnerable. These findings highlight starting points move towards resilient development. Priority should be not just regions are likely face more future but also confronted with high already.

Language: Английский

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Impacts of Climate Variability and Drought on Surface Water Resources in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Remote Sensing: A Review

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(24), P. 4184 - 4184

Published: Dec. 21, 2020

Climate variability and recurrent droughts have caused remarkable strain on water resources in most regions across the globe, with arid semi-arid areas being hardest hit. The impacts been notable surface resources, which are already under threat from massive abstractions due to increased demand, as well poor conservation unsustainable land management practices. Drought climate variability, their associated gained attention recent decades nations seek enhance mitigation adaptation mechanisms. Although use of satellite technologies has, late, prominence generating timely spatially explicit information drought different regions, they somewhat hampered by difficulties detecting evolution its complex nature, varying scales, magnitude occurrence, inherent data gaps. Currently, a number studies conducted monitor assess sub-Saharan Africa using remotely sensed in-situ datasets. This study therefore provides detailed overview progress made tracking remote sensing, including relevance monitoring hydrological Africa. paper further discusses traditional sensing methods drought, application key challenges, particular emphasis Additionally, characteristics limitations various sensors, indices, namely, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Palmer Severity (PDSI), Normalized Difference Vegetation (NDVI), Condition (VCI), Water Requirement Satisfaction (WRSI), (NDWI), Modified (MNDWI), Land Surface (LSWI+5), (MNDWI+5), Automated Extraction (shadow) (AWEIsh), (non-shadow) (AWEInsh), discussed. scientific research strides knowledge gaps for investigations highlighted. While has advancing this review indicates need assessing especially context change demand. results suggests that Landsat-8 Sentinel-2 likely be best suited bodies, availability at relatively low cost, impressive spectral, spatial, temporal characteristics. effective indices SPI, PDSI, NDVI, VCI, NDWI, MNDWI, MNDWI+5, AWEIsh, AWEInsh. Overall, findings emphasize increasing role potential resources. However, there is future consider spatial integration techniques, radar data, precipitation, cloud computing, machine learning or artificial intelligence (AI) techniques improve understanding scales.

Language: Английский

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Drought risk for agricultural systems in South Africa: Drivers, spatial patterns, and implications for drought risk management

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 799, P. 149505 - 149505

Published: Aug. 5, 2021

The regular drought episodes in South Africa highlight the need to reduce risk by both policy and local community actions. Environmental socioeconomic factors Africa's agricultural system have been affected past, creating cascading pressures on nation's agro-economic water supply systems. Therefore, understanding key drivers of all components through a comprehensive assessment must be undertaken order inform proactive management. This paper presents, for first time, national irrigated rainfed systems, that takes into account complex interaction between different components. We use modeling remote sensing approaches involve experts selecting vulnerability indicators providing information human natural drivers. Our results show municipalities last 30 years. years 1981-1982, 1992, 2016 2018 were marked as driest during study period (1981-2018) compared reference (1986-2015). In general, systems are remarkably less often than systems; however, most farmers land smallholders whom impacts can significant. is exceptionally high north, central west country, while there more separate high-risk hotspots across country. identified potential entry points disaster reduction at municipality level, such increasing environmental awareness, reducing degradation total dam irrigation capacity.

Language: Английский

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The challenges of dynamic vulnerability and how to assess it

iScience, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(8), P. 104720 - 104720

Published: July 4, 2022

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by society as a result of increasing complexity disaster risk. In this perspective article, we discuss complex interactions between hazards and vulnerability suggest methodological approaches to assess include dynamics in our risk assessments, learning from compound multi-hazard, socio-hydrology, socio-ecological research communities. We argue for changed perspective, starting with circumstances that determine dynamic vulnerability. identify three types vulnerability: (1) underlying vulnerability, (2) changes during long-lasting disasters, (3) compounding societal shocks. conclude there is great potential capture using qualitative model-based methods, both reproducing historic projecting future provide examples narratives, agent-based models, system dynamics.

Language: Английский

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Fuzzy Logic and Neural Network-based Risk Assessment Model for Import and Export Enterprises: A Review

Journal of Data Science and Intelligent Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 2 - 11

Published: June 16, 2023

With the rapid growth in foreign trade business and continuous expansion of customs functions, amount data obtained by monitoring systems has drastically increased, risk management techniques have been widely used field. Risk assessment, as an important part management, can help departments to understand possibility impact risks advance. Assessing import export enterprises is task for customs. However, assessment challenging because large-scale data, rapidly changing information, inherent fuzziness. To address this issue, survey summarizes existing methods, combines preliminaries fuzzy logic neural networks, applies representative models enterprises. The based on networks handle vague uncertain improve efficiency through adaptive learning capabilities. combination theoretical simple case suggests that method good feasibility provides valuable references developing effective future.

Language: Английский

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