Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 30(20), P. 8179 - 8205

Published: July 19, 2017

Abstract The monthly global 2° × Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) has been revised and updated from version 4 to 5. This update incorporates a new release of ICOADS 3.0 (R3.0), decade near-surface data Argo floats, estimate centennial sea ice HadISST2. A number choices in aspects quality control, bias adjustment, interpolation have substantively revised. resulting ERSST estimates more realistic spatiotemporal variations, better representation high-latitude SSTs, ship SST biases are now calculated relative accurate buoy measurements, while the long-term trend remains about same. Progressive experiments undertaken highlight effects each change source analysis technique upon final product. reconstructed is systematically decreased by 0.077°C, as reference switched ERSSTv4 modern ERSSTv5. Furthermore, SSTs 0.1°–0.2°C using concentration HadISST2 over HadISST1. Changes arising remaining innovations mostly important at small space time scales, primarily having an impact where when input observations sparse. Cross validations verifications with independent show that updates incorporated ERSSTv5 improved spatial variability oceans, magnitude El Niño La Niña events, decadal nature changes 1930s–40s observation instruments changed rapidly. Both long- (1900–2015) short-term (2000–15) trends remain significant ERSSTv4.

Language: Английский

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The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate

Language: Английский

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An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 58(4)

Published: July 22, 2020

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective S. This includes feedback process understanding, the historical record, and paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult reconcile with any three lines evidence. The amount cooling during Last Glacial Maximum provides strong against values greater 4.5 K. Other in combination also show that this relatively unlikely. use a Bayesian approach produce probability density function (PDF) for given all evidence, including tests robustness difficult-to-quantify uncertainties different priors. 66% range 2.6–3.9 our Baseline calculation remains within 2.3–4.5 under tests; corresponding 5–95% ranges are 2.3–4.7 K, bounded 2.0–5.7 (although such high-confidence should be regarded more cautiously). indicates stronger constraint on reported past assessments, lifting low end range. narrowing occurs because agree judged largely independent confidence understanding processes combining identify promising avenues further S, particular using comprehensive models address limitations traditional forcing-feedback paradigm interpreting changes.

Language: Английский

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Improvements in the GISTEMP Uncertainty Model

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 124(12), P. 6307 - 6326

Published: May 23, 2019

Abstract We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute Space Studies Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data ocean ships, buoys, other sensors. Uncertainties arise measurement uncertainty, changes coverage of record, systematic biases due to technology shifts land cover changes. Previously published estimates GISTEMP included only effect incomplete coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available distributions source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses, incorporate independently processing, homogenization, structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties near 0.05 °C global annual mean last 50 years increase going back further time reaching 0.15 1880. In addition, quantify benefits inherent interpolation averaging method. use total estimate probability each record year actually be true (to that date) conclude with 87% likelihood 2016 was indeed hottest instrumental period (so far).

Language: Английский

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An Updated Assessment of Near‐Surface Temperature Change From 1850: The HadCRUT5 Data Set

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 126(3)

Published: Dec. 15, 2020

Abstract We present a new version of the Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit global surface temperature data set, HadCRUT5. HadCRUT5 presents monthly average near‐surface anomalies, relative to 1961–1990 period, on regular 5° latitude by longitude grid from 1850 2018. is combination sea‐surface (SST) measurements over ocean ships and buoys air weather stations land surface. These have been sourced updated compilations adjustments applied mitigate impact changes in SST measurement methods revised. Two variants produced for use different applications. The first represents anomaly locations where are available. second, more spatially complete, variant uses Gaussian process based statistical method make better available observations, extending estimates into regions which underlying informative. Each provided as 200‐member ensemble accompanied additional uncertainty information. revised input sets analysis results greater warming course whole record. In recent years, increased an improved representation Arctic understanding evolving biases ships. updates result consistency with other independent sets, despite their approaches set construction, further increase confidence our seen.

Language: Английский

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Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth in the 4 Years 2014–2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 33(3), P. 318 - 342

Published: Feb. 5, 2019

Abstract Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 0.7 2016 (7.0 and 2017 (7.7 at rates not observed since the 1980s. The increase burden began 2007, with mean global mole fraction remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb 2006 to 1,850 2017. Simultaneously 13 C/ 12 C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ CH4 ) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. causes of methane's recent are therefore either change relative proportions (and totals) emissions biogenic thermogenic pyrogenic sources, especially tropics subtropics, or decline atmospheric sink methane, both. Unfortunately, limited measurement data sets, it is currently possible be definitive. climate warming impact over past decade, if continued >5 ppb/year coming decades, sufficient challenge Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts burden. However, anthropogenic relatively large thus offer attractive targets rapid reduction, essential Agreement aims attained.

Language: Английский

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Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 6(12)

Published: March 18, 2020

Strong future warming in some new climate models is less likely as their recent inconsistent with observed trends.

Language: Английский

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Changing State of the Climate System

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 287 - 422

Published: June 29, 2023

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Language: Английский

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The ERA5 global reanalysis: Preliminary extension to 1950

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 147(741), P. 4186 - 4227

Published: Sept. 24, 2021

Abstract The extension of the ERA5 reanalysis back to 1950 supplements previously published segment covering 1979 present. It features assimilation additional conventional observations, as well improved use early satellite data. number observations assimilated increases from 53,000 per day in 570,000 by end 1978. Accordingly, quality improves throughout period, generally joining seamlessly with fidelity is illustrated accurate depiction North Sea storm 1953, and events leading first discovery sudden stratospheric warmings 1952. Time series global surface temperature anomalies show temperatures be relatively stable until late 1970s, agreement other contemporary full‐input this period independent data sets, although there are significant differences accuracy representing specific regions, Europe being represented but Australia less so. variability precipitation month agrees for all continents, correlations above 90% most excess 70% America, Asia Australia. evolution upper air temperatures, humidities winds shows smoothly varying behaviour, including tropospheric warming cooling, modulated volcanic eruptions. Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation throughout. Aspects upon future reanalyses include tropical cyclone data, spin‐up soil moisture humidity, representation over

Language: Английский

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Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’

Nature, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 545(7652), P. 41 - 47

Published: May 1, 2017

Language: Английский

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