Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time DOI Creative Commons
Elena Ridolfi, Florian Albrecht, Giuliano Di Baldassarre

et al.

Hydrological Sciences Journal, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 65(1), P. 12 - 20

Published: Oct. 14, 2019

What implications do societies' risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant perception management: neglecting, monitoring, downplaying controlling societies. We explore consequent trajectories generated by interactions floods people these over time. The results suggest losses are substantially reduced when awareness-raising attitudes promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in community. In contrast, rely on top-down hierarchies structural measures protect settlements floodplains may still suffer significant during extreme illustrates how predictions formed social science theories can be applied tested modelling.

Language: Английский

Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods DOI
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Sergiy Vorogushyn

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(9), P. 592 - 609

Published: Aug. 10, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

430
Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research DOI Creative Commons
Magdalena Rogger, Mauro Agnoletti, Abdallah Alaoui

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 53(7), P. 5209 - 5219

Published: June 2, 2017

Abstract Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies addressing these proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, a focus connectivity patterns spatial scales. It is suggested that will stimulate new research coherently addresses issues hydrology, soil sciences, engineering, ecology, geomorphology.

Language: Английский

Citations

359
Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years DOI
Günter Blöschl, Andrea Kiss, Alberto Viglione

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 583(7817), P. 560 - 566

Published: July 22, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

277
Soil hydrology in the Earth system DOI
Harry Vereecken, Wulf Amelung, Sara L. Bauke

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(9), P. 573 - 587

Published: Aug. 2, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

206
Does soil compaction increase floods? A review DOI
Abdallah Alaoui, Magdalena Rogger, Stephan Peth

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 557, P. 631 - 642

Published: Dec. 26, 2017

Language: Английский

Citations

203
Untenable nonstationarity: An assessment of the fitness for purpose of trend tests in hydrology DOI Creative Commons
Francesco Serinaldi, Chris Kilsby, Federico Lombardo

et al.

Advances in Water Resources, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 111, P. 132 - 155

Published: Oct. 19, 2017

The detection and attribution of long-term patterns in hydrological time series have been important research topics for decades. A significant portion the literature regards such as 'deterministic components' or 'trends' even though complexity systems does not allow easy deterministic explanations attributions. Consequently, trend estimation techniques developed to make justify statements about tendencies historical data, which are often used predict future events. Testing hypothesis on observed is widespread hydro-meteorological mainly due interest detecting consequences human activities cycle. This analysis usually relies application some null significance tests (NHSTs) slowly-varying and/or abrupt changes, Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, similar, summary statistics (e.g., annual averages, maxima, minima, etc.). However, reliability this has seldom explored detail. paper discusses misuse, misinterpretation, logical flaws NHST trends data from three different points view: historic-logical, semantic-epistemological, practical. Based a review rationale, basic statistical definitions stationarity, nonstationarity, ergodicity, we show that if empirical always feasible numerical point view, it uninformative inference nonstationarity without assuming priori additional information underlying stochastic process, according deductive reasoning. prevents use outcomes support nonstationary frequency modeling. We also correlation structures characterizing might easily be underestimated, further compromising attempt draw conclusions spanning period records. Moreover, adjusting procedures accounting developed, them insufficient applied only tests, while others theoretically flawed but still widely applied. In particular, using 250 unimpacted stream flow across conterminous United States (CONUS), test results can dramatically change sequences values reproduced starting daily records, whose larger sizes enable more reliable assessment structures.

Language: Английский

Citations

196
Flooding and its relationship with land cover change, population growth, and road density DOI Creative Commons

Mahfuzur Rahman,

Chen Ningsheng,

Golam Iftekhar Mahmud

et al.

Geoscience Frontiers, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(6), P. 101224 - 101224

Published: May 5, 2021

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding. These are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability. However, identifying the factors that lead flooding is challenging. This study mapped flood susceptibility in northeast region of using Bayesian regularization back propagation (BRBP) neural network, classification regression trees (CART), a statistical model (STM) evidence belief function (EBF), their ensemble models (EMs) for three time periods (2000, 2014, 2017). The accuracy machine learning algorithms (MLAs), STM, EMs were assessed by considering area under curve—receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC). Evaluation levels aforementioned revealed EM4 (BRBP-CART-EBF) outperformed (AUC > 90%) standalone other analyzed. Furthermore, this investigated relationships among cover change (LCC), population growth (PG), road density (RD), relative (RCF) areas period between 2000 2017. results showed very high increased 19.72% 2017, while PG rate 51.68% over same period. Pearson correlation coefficient RCF RD was calculated 0.496. findings highlight significant association floods causative factors. could valuable policymakers resource managers they can improvements management reduction damage risks.

Language: Английский

Citations

144
Understanding Heavy Tails of Flood Peak Distributions DOI Creative Commons
Bruno Merz, Stefano Basso, Svenja Fischer

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 58(6)

Published: June 1, 2022

Abstract Statistical distributions of flood peak discharge often show heavy tail behavior, that is, extreme floods are more likely to occur than would be predicted by commonly used have exponential asymptotic behavior. This behavior may surprise managers and citizens, as human intuition tends expect light the heaviness tails is very difficult predict, which lead unnecessarily high damage. Despite its importance, literature on rather fragmented. In this review, we provide a coherent overview processes causing implications for science practice. Specifically, propose nine hypotheses mechanisms in related atmosphere, catchment, river system. We then discuss extent current knowledge supports or contradicts these hypotheses. also statistical conditions emergence based derived distribution theory relate them generation mechanisms. review degree can from process data. Finally, recommend further research toward testing improving prediction tails.

Language: Английский

Citations

80
Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes DOI
Jinghua Xiong, Yuting Yang

Current Climate Change Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Oct. 2, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

23
Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States DOI Creative Commons
S. A. Archfield, Robert M. Hirsch, Alberto Viglione

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 43(19)

Published: Sept. 17, 2016

Abstract Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average two events per year relative to a base period) across United States show large changes; however, few trends are found be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior flood change can described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing (3) decreasing or (4) increases all properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack cohesion is further demonstrated correlations between temporal patterns large‐scale climate indices. These findings reveal complex, fragmented pattern that, therefore, clouds ability make meaningful generalizations about States.

Language: Английский

Citations

151