Optimising predictive models to prioritise viral discovery in zoonotic reservoirs

The Lancet Microbe, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(8), P. e625 - e637

Published: Jan. 10, 2022

Despite the global investment in One Health disease surveillance, it remains difficult and costly to identify monitor wildlife reservoirs of novel zoonotic viruses. Statistical models can guide sampling target prioritisation, but predictions from any given model might be highly uncertain; moreover, systematic validation is rare, drivers performance are consequently under-documented. Here, we use bat hosts betacoronaviruses as a case study for data-driven process comparing validating predictive probable reservoir hosts. In early 2020, generated an ensemble eight statistical that predicted host–virus associations developed priority recommendations potential bridge SARS-CoV-2. During time frame more than year, tracked discovery 47 new betacoronaviruses, validated initial predictions, dynamically updated our analytical pipeline. We found ecological trait-based performed well at predicting these hosts, whereas network methods consistently approximately or worse expected random. These findings illustrate importance modelling buffer against mixed-model quality highlight value including host ecology models. Our revised showed improved compared with ensemble, 400 species globally could undetected betacoronavirus show, through validation, machine learning help optimise undiscovered viruses illustrates how such approaches best implemented dynamic prediction, data collection, updating.

Language: Английский

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Pathogens and planetary change

Published: Jan. 15, 2025

Emerging infectious diseases, biodiversity loss, and anthropogenic environmental change are interconnected crises with massive social ecological costs. In this Review, we discuss how pathogens parasites responding to global change, the implications for pandemic prevention conservation. Ecological evolutionary principles help explain why both pandemics wildlife die-offs becoming more common; land-use loss often followed by an increase in zoonotic vector-borne diseases; some species, such as bats, host so many emerging pathogens. To prevent next pandemic, scientists should focus on monitoring limiting spread of a handful high-risk viruses, especially at key interfaces farms live-animal markets. But address much broader set disease risks associated Anthropocene, decision-makers will need develop comprehensive strategies that include pathogen surveillance across species ecosystems; conservation-based interventions reduce human–animal contact protect health; health system strengthening; improvements epidemic preparedness response. Scientists can contribute these efforts filling gaps data, expanding evidence base disease–driver relationships interventions. This Review explores relationship between diseases connected changes Anthropocene.

Language: Английский

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Towards a ‘people and nature’ paradigm for biodiversity and infectious disease

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380(1917)

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Zoonotic and vector-borne infectious diseases are among the most direct human health consequences of biodiversity change. The COVID-19 pandemic increased policymakers’ attention on links between ecological degradation disease, sparked discussions around nature-based interventions to mitigate zoonotic emergence epidemics. Yet, although disease ecology provides an increasingly granular knowledge wildlife in changing ecosystems, we still have a poor understanding net for disease. Here, argue that renewed focus wildlife-borne as complex socio-ecological systems—a ‘people nature’ paradigm—is needed identify local transformative system-wide changes could reduce burden. We discuss longstanding scientific narratives involvement systems, which largely framed people disruptors, three emerging research areas provide wider system perspectives: how anthropogenic ecosystems construct new niches feedbacks social vulnerability role human-to-animal pathogen transmission (‘spillback’) systems. conclude by discussing opportunities better understand predictability outcomes from change integrate drivers into intervention design evaluation. This article is part discussion meeting issue ‘Bending curve towards nature recovery: building Georgina Mace's legacy biodiverse future’.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the risk of human‐to‐wildlife pathogen transmission for conservation and public health

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 25(6), P. 1534 - 1549

Published: March 22, 2022

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to increased concern over transmission of pathogens from humans animals, and its potential threaten conservation public health. To assess this threat, we reviewed published evidence human-to-wildlife events, with a focus on how such events could animal human We identified 97 verified examples, involving wide range pathogens; however, reported hosts were mostly non-human primates or large, long-lived captive animals. Relatively few documented examples resulted in morbidity mortality, very maintenance pathogen new reservoir subsequent "secondary spillover" back into humans. discuss limitations the literature surrounding these phenomena, including strong sampling bias towards human-proximate mammals possibility systematic against reporting parasites wildlife, both which limit our ability risk transmission. outline researchers can collect experimental observational that will expand capacity for assessment

Language: Английский

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Role of Spillover and Spillback in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and the Importance of One Health in Understanding the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Journal of Clinical Microbiology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 61(7)

Published: April 26, 2023

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is notable both for its impact on global public health as well well-publicized transmissibility to other species of animals. Infection incidental animal hosts concerning because possible emergence novel variants due viral mutation. Species that are susceptible SARS-CoV-2 include domestic and nondomestic cats, dogs, white-tailed deer, mink, golden hamsters, among others. We detail origins transmission humans, the ecological molecular mechanisms needed virus establish infection in humans from highlight examples spillover, spillback, secondary demonstrating breadth variability current events have been documented domestic, captive, wild Lastly, we turn our focus importance potential reservoirs sources variant can profound effects human population. note a One Health approach emphasizing surveillance animals certain environments using interdisciplinary collaboration encouraged manage disease surveillance, regulation trade testing, vaccine development will mitigate further outbreaks. These efforts minimize spread advance knowledge prevent future emerging infectious diseases.

Language: Английский

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Projecting the SARS-CoV-2 transition from pandemicity to endemicity: Epidemiological and immunological considerations

PLoS Pathogens, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 18(6), P. e1010591 - e1010591

Published: June 30, 2022

In this review, we discuss the epidemiological dynamics of different viral infections to project how transition from a pandemic endemic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might take shape. Drawing theories disease invasion and transmission dynamics, waning immunity in face evolution antigenic drift, empirical data influenza, dengue, seasonal coronaviruses, putative periodicity, severity, age SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic. We review recent studies on epidemiology, immunology, that are particularly useful projecting endemicity highlight gaps warrant further research.

Language: Английский

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SARS-ANI: a global open access dataset of reported SARS-CoV-2 events in animals

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: July 23, 2022

Abstract The zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2, the etiological agent COVID-19, is not yet fully resolved. Although natural infections in animals are reported a wide range species, large knowledge and data gaps remain regarding SARS-CoV-2 animal hosts. We used two major health databases to extract unstructured generated global dataset events animals. presents harmonized host names, integrates relevant epidemiological clinical on each event, readily usable for analytical purposes. also share code technical visual validation created user-friendly dashboard exploration. Data occurrence critical adapting monitoring strategies, preventing formation reservoirs, tailoring future human vaccination programs. FAIRness flexibility will support research efforts at human-animal-environment interface. intend update this weekly least one year and, through collaborations, develop it further expand its use.

Language: Английский

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Intersecting planetary health: Exploring the impacts of environmental stressors on wildlife and human health

Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 283, P. 116848 - 116848

Published: Aug. 7, 2024

This comprehensive review articulates critical insights into the nexus of environmental stressors and their health impacts across diverse species, underscoring significant findings that reveal profound effects on both wildlife human systems. Central to our examination is role pollutants, climate variables, pathogens in contributing complex disease dynamics physiological disruptions, with particular emphasis immune endocrine functions. research brings light emerging evidence severe implications pressures a variety taxa, including predatory mammals, raptorial birds, seabirds, fish, humans, which are pivotal as indicators broader ecosystem stability. We delve nuanced interplay between degradation zoonotic diseases, highlighting novel intersections pose risks biodiversity populations. The critically evaluates current methodologies advances understanding morphological, histopathological, biochemical responses these organisms stressors. discuss for conservation strategies, advocating more integrated approach incorporates zoonoses pollution control. synthesis not only contributes academic discourse but also aims influence policy by aligning Global Goals Sustainable Development. It underscores urgent need sustainable interactions humans environments, preserving ensuring global security. By presenting detailed analysis interdependencies biological health, this highlights gaps provides foundation future studies aimed at mitigating pressing issues. Our study it proposes integrative actionable strategies address challenges intersection change public marking crucial step forward planetary science.

Language: Английский

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A One Health framework for exploring zoonotic interactions demonstrated through a case study

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: July 15, 2024

Abstract The eco-epidemiology of zoonoses is often oversimplified to host-pathogen interactions while findings derived from global datasets are rarely directly transferable smaller-scale contexts. Through a systematic literature search, we compiled dataset naturally occurring zoonotic in Austria, spanning 1975–2022. We introduce the concept web describe complex relationships between agents, their hosts, vectors, food, and environmental sources. was explored through network analysis. After controlling for research effort, demonstrate that, within projected unipartite source-source agent sharing, most influential sources human, cattle, chicken, some meat products. Analysis One Health 3-cliques (triangular sets nodes representing animal, environment) confirms increased probability spillover at human-cattle human-food interfaces. characterise six communities which assembly patterns likely driven by highly connected infectious agents web, proximity anthropogenic activities. Additionally, report frequency emerging diseases Austria one every years. Here, present flexible network-based approach that offers insights into transmission chains, facilitating development locally-relevant strategies against zoonoses.

Language: Английский

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Setting the Terms for Zoonotic Diseases: Effective Communication for Research, Conservation, and Public Policy

Viruses, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 13(7), P. 1356 - 1356

Published: July 13, 2021

Many of the world's most pressing issues, such as emergence zoonotic diseases, can only be addressed through interdisciplinary research. However, findings research are susceptible to miscommunication among both professional and non-professional audiences due differences in training, language, experience, understanding. Such contributes misunderstanding key concepts or processes hinders development effective agendas public policy. These misunderstandings also provoke unnecessary fear have devastating effects for wildlife conservation. For example, inaccurate communication subsequent potential associations between certain bats zoonoses has led persecution diverse worldwide even government calls cull them. Here, we identify four types driven by use terminology regarding diseases that categorized based on their root causes: (1) incorrect overly broad terms; (2) terms unstable usage within a discipline, different usages disciplines; (3) used correctly but spark inferences about biological significance audience; (4) inference drawn from evidence presented. We illustrate each type with commonly misused misinterpreted terms, providing definition, caveats common misconceptions, suggest alternatives appropriate. While focus specific disease ecology, present more general framework addressing applied other topics disciplines facilitate research, problem-solving,

Language: Английский

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