Drought projections for Australia: Updated results and analysis of model simulations DOI Creative Commons
Dewi Kirono, Vanessa Round, Craig Heady

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 30, P. 100280 - 100280

Published: Aug. 25, 2020

To meet increasing demand for information on future drought hazard to help Australia build resilience and preparedness under a changing climate, we developed new projections four sub-regions based the natural resources management (NRM) zones. The reported here includes: two indices (the Standardised Precipitation Index, SPI, Soil Moisture SSMI); metrics (percent time spent in droughts, mean duration, frequency, intensity); categories (drought extreme drought). are from CMIP5 global climate model simulations of rainfall soil moisture historical (1900–2005) (2006–2100) climates. multi-model results project significant increases all metrics, except with larger changes SSMI compared SPI. more severe change is apparent over area than previously indicated, particularly southern eastern Australia. Although majority modelling indicate conditions, range large, mainly because uncertainty projections. A projected decrease increase severity (which further enhanced by potential evapotranspiration), (moderated evapotranspiration). assessment ability models reproduce observations does not show clusters that best simulate different metrics. Unlike assumed, observed necessarily simulating For this reason, used estimate median results. large can be confusing end users present challenges adapting change. presentation communication will also go some way towards overcoming challenge.

Language: Английский

Patterns and drivers of global gross nitrogen mineralization in soils DOI
Ahmed S. Elrys, Ahmad Ali, Huimin Zhang

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 27(22), P. 5950 - 5962

Published: Aug. 18, 2021

Abstract Soil gross nitrogen (N) mineralization (GNM), a key microbial process in the global N cycle, is mainly controlled by climate and soil properties. This study provides for first time comprehensive analysis of role physicochemical properties their interactions with biomass (MB) controlling GNM globally. Through meta‐analysis 970 observations from 337 published papers various ecosystems, we found that was positively correlated MB, total carbon, precipitation, negatively bulk density (BD) pH. Our multivariate structural equation modeling revealed driven MB dominantly influenced BD precipitation. The higher accelerates via increasing MB. decrease stimulates whereas precipitation N. Moreover, varies ecosystem type, being greater forests grasslands high carbon contents low pH compared to croplands. highest observed tropical wet soils receive which increases supply substrate (total N) microbes. findings suggest anthropogenic activities affect population size, BD, availability, or may interact changes regime land use influence GNM, ultimately productivity loss environment.

Language: Английский

Citations

182
Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble DOI
Erika Coppola, Francesca Raffaele, Filippo Giorgi

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 2, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

123
Revisiting future extreme precipitation trends in the Mediterranean DOI Creative Commons
George Zittis, Adriana Bruggeman, Jos Lelieveld

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 34, P. 100380 - 100380

Published: Aug. 26, 2021

Global warming is anticipated to intensify the hydrological cycle. However, this neither expected be globally uniform nor relationship between temperature increase and rainfall intensities linear. The objective of study assess changes in annual extremes, total precipitation, their larger Mediterranean region. We use an up-to-date ensemble 33 regional climate simulations from EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.11° resolution. analyse significance trends for 1951-2000 2001-2100 under a 'business-as-usual' pathway (RCP8.5). Our future projections indicate strong north/south gradient, with significant, decreasing magnitude daily precipitation extremes south Maghreb region (up -10 mm/decade) less profound, increasing north. Despite contrasting trends, 50-year are projected strongly 100%) throughout 100-year derived traditional extreme value approaches simulations, underestimate these events by 30% drier areas (200-500 mm average rainfall) up 20-30% wetter parts These can occur any time location. contribution wettest day per year (5-30%) reductions mean drier, southern eastern will amplify challenges water resource management.

Language: Английский

Citations

120
A comprehensive assessment of remote sensing and traditional based drought monitoring indices at global and regional scale DOI Creative Commons
Niranga Alahacoon,

Mahesh Edirisinghe

Geomatics Natural Hazards and Risk, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 762 - 799

Published: March 8, 2022

This study reports a comprehensive review on drought indices used in monitoring meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic drought. Drought have been introduced as an important approach to quantitative qualitative calculations of drought's severity impact. There were 111 reviewed this study, which fall into two categories: traditional (location-specific/model) remote sensing (RS). Out indices, 44 belong the 67 RS section. shows that meteorological has highest number (22) about 20% overall, while lowest (7) agricultural is 6.3%. The specialty when considering sensing-based 90% are for 10% hydrological monitoring. However, found advances satellite technology accelerated design new replacing location-specific data with observation makes it easier calculate more spatial distribution resolution.

Language: Английский

Citations

90
The summer 2022 drought: a taste of future climate for the Po valley (Italy)? DOI
Davide Bonaldo, Debora Bellafiore, Christian Ferrarin

et al.

Regional Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 23(1)

Published: Dec. 6, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

90
Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean DOI Creative Commons
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(2), P. 749 - 777

Published: April 11, 2022

Abstract. Gaining a holistic understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to impacts on society and ecosystems, is key supporting future risk reduction preparedness measures. Here, we provide an overview the state art, knowledge gaps open questions in study weather events over vulnerable eastern Mediterranean. This region situated transition zone between subtropical mid-latitude climates. The large-scale atmospheric circulation interaction with regional synoptic systems (i.e., Cyprus Lows, Red Sea Troughs, Persian “Sharav” Lows) high-pressure mainly govern weather. Complex orographic features further play important role generation Most events, including heavy precipitation, cold spells, floods windstorms, are associated Lows or active whereas heat waves related either Troughs sub-tropical summer Sharav Low during springtime. In decades, droughts projected significantly increase both frequency intensity. Changes precipitation may vary sign magnitude depending scale, severity interest. There still relatively large uncertainties concerning changes windstorms compound extremes, as these types received comparatively little attention literature. We identify that relate societal These effects have mortality, morbidity infrastructure Research currently limited this context, recommend strengthening database analyzed case studies. trust can only be suitably accomplished by inter-disciplinary international collaboration (in spite political unrest).

Language: Английский

Citations

80
Complex drought patterns robustly explain global yield loss for major crops DOI
Monia Santini, Sergio Noce, Marta Antonelli

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: April 6, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

70
A review of recent developments on drought characterization, propagation, and influential factors DOI
Vinícius de Matos Brandão Raposo, Veber Afonso Figueiredo Costa, André Ferreira Rodrigues

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 898, P. 165550 - 165550

Published: July 17, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

63
Drivers of accelerated warming in Mediterranean climate-type regions DOI Creative Commons
Diego Urdiales‐Flores, George Zittis, Panos Hadjinicolaou

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: July 20, 2023

Abstract The near-surface temperature in Mediterranean climate-type regions has increased overall similarly or more rapidly than the global mean rates. Although these have comparable climate characteristics and are located at similar latitudes, recent warming acceleration is most pronounced Basin. Here, we investigate contributions of several drivers to regional anomalies. We consider greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar irradiance, land–atmosphere interactions, natural variability modes. Our results highlight dominant role anthropogenic gas radiative forcing all regions, particularly those northern hemisphere. In Basin, largely due combined effect declining aerosols a negative trend soil moisture. While land-atmosphere feedbacks also important other locations (e.g., California Southern Africa), this synergy unique These two components equivalent importance. Such not fully resolved current projections.

Language: Английский

Citations

58
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective DOI Creative Commons
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren Seaby Andersen

et al.

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(5), P. 1699 - 1718

Published: May 8, 2023

Abstract. The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, concurrent heat drought extremes large parts the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis extreme particular focus Germany. heatwave first affected Scandinavia mid-July shifted towards Europe late July, while Iberia primarily early August. atmospheric circulation characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over combination North Atlantic Oscillation double jet stream configuration before initiation heatwave. In possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, Eurasian double-jet structure tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly were already identified spring. While stages air masses at mid upper levels often remote, maritime origin, later had local-to-regional origin. Germany most, starting warmer than average conditions spring, associated enhanced latent release that initiated severe depletion soil moisture. During summer, continued precipitation deficit exacerbated problem, leading hydrological agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment showed such events prolonged have become more likely due anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, as is expected occur every 2 out 3 years +1.5 ∘C world virtually single year +2 world. With large-scale impactful becoming frequent intense under climate change, comprehensive studies like one presented here quantify multitude their effects provide valuable information basis adaptation mitigation strategies.

Language: Английский

Citations

53